American Economy: Don’t believe the hype

Posted January 24, 2008

"The condition is creating a great buying opportunity. All sorts of stocks are selling at great discounts. " – Andrew Snyder

By Andrew Snyder

Denver (TFN) — I am sick of sitting on my butt. Over the last 36 hours I have managed to criss-cross the continent. I started in Juneau, flew across Canada into the nation’s capital, traveled a geographic hair north to Baltimore, and shot back west to my final destination in Denver.

I am an active guy and that much sitting drove me nuts, but it did give me the opportunity to meet a lot of people and make even more observations. The notion of impending recession was a hot topic everywhere I went.

One of the more astute conclusions I was able to draw from my in-flight chats was the mainstream media is profiting from recession talk more than anybody else. Across the board, every person I chatted with that knew anything about their business or the economy assured me their views of the situation were far different than the media’s “red alert” portrayals.

There is a common belief that this is a media-induced downturn, or at the very least, greatly exaggerated by the media. I will be able to draw more conclusions by the end of the week.

A little slice of economic heaven

You see, I am in Denver attending a sportsman's show. You know the kind… where camouflage is just as acceptable attire as a suit and tie and bikini-clad models are showing off the latest in fishing rod technology. Truthfully, it is my version of heaven on earth, not only as a fan of the outdoors, but also as a student of the economy. Remember, the sporting industry is responsible for billions of dollars of economic activity each year. It is an excellent gauge of what is really happening out there.

When I arrived last night, I had the opportunity to sit down with a good friend of mine. He owned a small airline for years and now, in semi-retirement, operates a world-class fishing lodge. Obviously, he knows the impacts of an economic downturn on the nation's spenders.

After commenting on my receding hairline, his first words to me were, "I don't like all this talk about the "R" word." He believes Bernanke's dramatic 75-basis point cut will have a greatly negative psychological effect on American consumers.

Take advantage of their errors

My friend is right. And that means we have an opportunity to grab some profits. Remember, the media is a fickle beast. Business across the nation is slowing, but not nearly as bad as most media outlets would suggest. That means as we receive the next quarter's earnings forecast, the headlines will likely be much more positive.

The condition is creating a great buying opportunity. All sorts of stocks are selling at great discounts. Take advantage of the cheap prices and start buying shares of the company unduly ravaged by the media's hype.

Over the next few days, I will get a firsthand look at the American economy. I suspect I will hear plenty of good news from the thousands of consumers I get to speak with at this show. This year will turn out much better than most talking heads will admit.