Comments on: The Death of Solar? Yet another bubble has popped! http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/oil-and-energy/the-death-of-solar-yet-another-bubble-has-popped-4603.html Today's Financial News offers an independent and very practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We filter out exactly what financial news is worth paying attention to... and what it means for your money and portfolio Tue, 26 Jan 2010 12:08:21 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Mike Morris http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/oil-and-energy/the-death-of-solar-yet-another-bubble-has-popped-4603.html#comment-1956 Mike Morris Fri, 17 Oct 2008 00:18:14 +0000 http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/?p=4603#comment-1956 The most stupid article i have read. Solar is here to stay and will become a trillion dollar industry by 2025. China,USA, India and middle east will the markets after the European countries. <br>The writer never had been to a science class I guess. Ethanol is a developed from commodity, Solar from SUN which will rise over stupid and wise people. Time will tell who this stupid people are.<br>All Solar stocks will double by JAN from the lows and the same stupid analyst will come and upgrade the stocks.There is no industry which is as profitable as SOLAR. Mark my words. The most stupid article i have read. Solar is here to stay and will become a trillion dollar industry by 2025. China,USA, India and middle east will the markets after the European countries.
The writer never had been to a science class I guess. Ethanol is a developed from commodity, Solar from SUN which will rise over stupid and wise people. Time will tell who this stupid people are.
All Solar stocks will double by JAN from the lows and the same stupid analyst will come and upgrade the stocks.There is no industry which is as profitable as SOLAR. Mark my words.

]]> By: Lee http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/oil-and-energy/the-death-of-solar-yet-another-bubble-has-popped-4603.html#comment-1925 Lee Tue, 07 Oct 2008 22:43:05 +0000 http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/?p=4603#comment-1925 There are many solar stocks that should be avoided and this sector is complicated enough that it's difficult to tell good from bad. Most of the analysts don't seem to have a clue. That being said, it's hard to believe the territory these stocks have gotten down to over 2008. STP is trading at a P/E of 19 and their F/P/E is down to about 12. <br><br>Spain had an amazing run of installations in August/September so third quarter earnings should be strong for STP and FSLR among others. But what about 2009? Over the last few years the integrators have developed some serious skills in Spain and Germany so as the Spanish market draws back the competition between the integrators is going to pick up. The profit margin at the integration end is high so there's plenty of room to drive prices down. The ramp in silicon production, coupled with wafering and BOS improvements will also tend to drive PV prices down. Japan, Italy, Hawaii and California aren't so far away from competitive markets. Japanese consumers at least still have some savings left...<br><br>I can see how you'd compare solar to ethanol from a stock market perspective but not from a technology perspective. Ethanol yields are not going to double any time soon but PV can easily see a 50% improvement in prices within a few years.<br><br>But yeah... The bubble is gone... Somebody aught to write a song... <br><br>The bubble is gone... <br>The trubble is on... <br>I done and got conned<br>So I'm writtin' this song There are many solar stocks that should be avoided and this sector is complicated enough that it's difficult to tell good from bad. Most of the analysts don't seem to have a clue. That being said, it's hard to believe the territory these stocks have gotten down to over 2008. STP is trading at a P/E of 19 and their F/P/E is down to about 12.

Spain had an amazing run of installations in August/September so third quarter earnings should be strong for STP and FSLR among others. But what about 2009? Over the last few years the integrators have developed some serious skills in Spain and Germany so as the Spanish market draws back the competition between the integrators is going to pick up. The profit margin at the integration end is high so there's plenty of room to drive prices down. The ramp in silicon production, coupled with wafering and BOS improvements will also tend to drive PV prices down. Japan, Italy, Hawaii and California aren't so far away from competitive markets. Japanese consumers at least still have some savings left…

I can see how you'd compare solar to ethanol from a stock market perspective but not from a technology perspective. Ethanol yields are not going to double any time soon but PV can easily see a 50% improvement in prices within a few years.

But yeah… The bubble is gone… Somebody aught to write a song…

The bubble is gone…
The trubble is on…
I done and got conned
So I'm writtin' this song

]]> By: Joe http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/oil-and-energy/the-death-of-solar-yet-another-bubble-has-popped-4603.html#comment-1924 Joe Tue, 07 Oct 2008 22:42:14 +0000 http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/?p=4603#comment-1924 How about some facts, not crap commentary? All this, just because first year Goldman analyst cut from hold to sell? How about forming your own opinions from the quantitative data presented? And just what do you mean by "Plus, there's talk of a huge-over supply by 2010." Who's talking about it? I've been in energy for nearly a decade now, and I've been watching solar for a few years and now is the time to buy as new and more efficient (in terms of energy conversion ratio) solar cell technology starts hitting the markets.<br><br>Furthermore, let's look at this: "Large-scale adoption of solar technology by consumers represents a huge investment. And currently, it doesn’t look like there will be excess play money lying around anywhere… or credit being extended. Plus, there’s talk of a huge solar over-supply by 2010."<br><br>So there's going to be a huge over-supply, but no large-scale adoption of the technology? Ok, that'll put the least-efficient bubble stocks under, paving the way for the companies that have strong fundamentals and better technology, and will give them a larger share of earnings, thereby driving up stock price. Remember a little thing called the tech bubble? Apple, Google, HP were all born or remade after that bubble, and look at what happened: market leaders for the past few years (and still are). How about some facts, not crap commentary? All this, just because first year Goldman analyst cut from hold to sell? How about forming your own opinions from the quantitative data presented? And just what do you mean by “Plus, there's talk of a huge-over supply by 2010.” Who's talking about it? I've been in energy for nearly a decade now, and I've been watching solar for a few years and now is the time to buy as new and more efficient (in terms of energy conversion ratio) solar cell technology starts hitting the markets.

Furthermore, let's look at this: “Large-scale adoption of solar technology by consumers represents a huge investment. And currently, it doesn’t look like there will be excess play money lying around anywhere… or credit being extended. Plus, there’s talk of a huge solar over-supply by 2010.”

So there's going to be a huge over-supply, but no large-scale adoption of the technology? Ok, that'll put the least-efficient bubble stocks under, paving the way for the companies that have strong fundamentals and better technology, and will give them a larger share of earnings, thereby driving up stock price. Remember a little thing called the tech bubble? Apple, Google, HP were all born or remade after that bubble, and look at what happened: market leaders for the past few years (and still are).

]]> By: bob http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/oil-and-energy/the-death-of-solar-yet-another-bubble-has-popped-4603.html#comment-1922 bob Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:04:59 +0000 http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/?p=4603#comment-1922 Lots of solar companies have already sold 2008 and 2009 production, guarnateeing their revenue estimates (excluding currency fluctuations). In fact, they're quite well off in terms of weathering the next 16 months. Lots of solar companies have already sold 2008 and 2009 production, guarnateeing their revenue estimates (excluding currency fluctuations). In fact, they're quite well off in terms of weathering the next 16 months.

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