Blog > Oil and Energy > Refiner Hot Stock Pick adds up to 32.4% average Hot Stock Confidential gains
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Refiner Hot Stock Pick adds up to 32.4% average Hot Stock Confidential gains

Posted August 27, 2008

On July 23, Laura Cadden recommended you “Load up on Tesoro Corporation (TSO:NYSE) while the gettin’s good”. The reasoning was straightforward: As crude oil cost declined, margins of U.S. refiners such as would expand again — and so would share prices. TSO closed at $16.67 that day. As of this afternoon’s trading range above $18.26, we’re up 10% over our July 23 entry price, and 19% over the level of our update. But our Hot Stock Confidential refiner pick bagged us 38% on the first half of our position…

by J. Christoph Amberger

Baltimore — (TFN): Talk about timing! On July 14, TodaysFinancialNews.com launched our first premium service, Hot Stock Confidential, with a report predicting rapidly falling oil prices. Our research had discovered what we considered “suspicious activity” — while oilmen, politicians and pundits were predicting a continuation of rising prices to $150, $300, or even $500, hedge funds were loading up on refinery shares… betting that lower oil prices would boost refiners’ margins and share prices.

To be honest, we looked like fools predicting falling crude oil prices. After all. Oil had just set an all-time high. One that withstood scrutiny even when adjusted for inflation.

On July 23, Laura Cadden recommended you “Load up on Tesoro (TSO) while the gettin’s good” on TFN’s Editor’s Pic. The reasoning was straightforward: As crude oil cost declined, margins of U.S. refiners such as Tesoro Corporation (TSO:NYSE) would expand again — and so would share prices. TSO closed at $16.67 that day.

Only that in the case of Tesoro, we were a tad early. By the time we updated you on this stock on July 28, the share price was down to $15.30, and closed at $14.92 on August 4. Since then, however, our prediction has played out nicely. As of this afternoon’s trading range above $18.26, we’re up 10% over our July 23 entry price, and 19% over the level of our update.

But our Members Only Hot Stock Confidential pick has been doing far better. We first released our recommendation of one particularly battered U.S. refiner on July 14 and recorded our official entry price at $8.80 for our HSC portfolio. That, of course, was exactly the point in time when crude oil hit its most recent records at around $147. And of course, the stock began to teeter-totter… creating the opportunity to buy as low as $7.72 on August 7 for members who joined us later.

Today, that stock crossed $12 for the first time since late June, creating gains of 38 percent for our first-wave subscribers, and gains of 55-plus percent for those who managed to buy in near recent lows. We, of course, are sticking to our official record keeping and are chalking up gains of 36% for the HSC tracking portfolio as we sold half of our original position.

With four closed positions since our launch on July 14, we’ve got bragging rights to 32.4% average gains in our Hot Stock Confidential portfolio, upgrading our average holding period to 21 days.

And while we’re on the subject of Hot Stock Confidential. I just finished filming tomorrow’s HSC Hot Stock Pick of the Week recommendation… I have found a company that’s grown sales by 56%, its net income by 37% — and stands to make money on almost every single car built in the fastest-growing motor vehicle market in the world… that’s 7 million this year… and 11 million by 2011.

The best part about it? You can still buy shares below $10!

Our Hot Stock Confidential members will be getting this recommendation tomorrow morning. Which means there’s still plenty of time for you to join them!

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Posted by J. Christoph Amberger · Filed Under Oil and Energy 

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