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Oil Prices: Peak or no peak?

Posted May 21, 2008

“I don’t put a lot of faith in macro predictions — as no one can predict the future. But you can study track records. You can look at history. History reveals some interesting clues about what the future may hold.” — Chris Mayer

by Chris Mayer

Baltimore – (TFN): Has oil hit its peak price or not? The answer to that question leads us to ask whether or not commodities are a bubble about to burst. Barron’s recent cover story on commodities came down on the side that the party was over.

I believe the charts I have in this column contain some powerful insights. You will want to keep them handy when things get rocky. They come courtesy of Barry Bannister, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, who delivered an interesting talk in Baltimore recently.

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I’ll focus on oil, though a similar story holds true throughout the commodity sector. I don’t put a lot of faith in macro predictions — as no one can predict the future. But you can study track records. You can look at history. History reveals some interesting clues about what the future may hold.

The quick take? It doesn’t look like the party is over just yet. But even if it is, past peaks in oil prices give us clues. When you dig a little deeper into those relationships, you find a great road map for making money. Read on to learn more.

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