Lighting a fire under America’s coal industry
Today's Financial News - Posted May 4, 2009
If you have been paying attention, you know today’s surge from the coal industry is no big surprise. As much as he may want to, even Obama can’t slow the dirty fuel’s international growth.
By Andrew Snyder, TodaysFinancialNews.com
Baltimore – (TFN): It turns out I was not alone when I discussed my bullish outlook for the nation’s coal producers last week. Earlier today, a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst gave a similar opinion.
The only difference between my article and his note to clients? His sent the industry soaring.
As I wrote Friday, my favorite coal producer, James River Coal (NASDAQ:JRCC), used strong contract prices to beat its Q1 estimates and send shares surging. The momentum from last week’s announcement has continued through today. Over the last five trading sessions, shares of the company have jumped by more than 55%.
There is a bull on the loose, for sure.
Thanks to the analyst’s positive note, James River is not alone today. Shares of Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE) are up by over 20%. National Coal Corp (NASDAQ:NCOC) is up by about 35%. Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) is up by 10%. And rounding out my top five, Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) is up by over 11%.
The big question is will the gains continue?
Here at home, the only person that can answer that question is Obama. As I wrote earlier today, his cap-and-trade notion could put the crimps on the sector’s future prosperity. Fortunately, most legislators are quickly realizing the idea is one of the most politically dangerous to come from Washington in a long time.
As the cap-and-trade nonsense begins to be pushed onto the next generation of leaders’ laps, coal prices will rise again. Even better, the bullishness will take place when international growth is starting to make headlines once again. It will be a coal-industry double whammy.
If you have been following the sector, you know China has a slew of coal-burning power projects in the works. Just because we are all sunshine, lollipops and alternative energy here, does not mean Asia is giving up its ultra-cheap infrastructure anytime soon.
International coal demand will grow, setting a floor for domestic prices. With one of the world’s largest reserve of coal, domestic producers will benefit from international growth.
Essentially, even though the coal industry got slammed by the current financial meltdown and a new wave of political fury, the industry is little changed from its phenomenal run just a few years ago.
I maintain my outlook and recommend buying coal-related plays on any dips.
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