Democrats and the oil industry
Today's Financial News - Posted November 5, 2008
The presidential election is finally over. A Democrat is heading to the White House. It is bad news for many oil-industry players like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), but may be good news for companies like Transocean (NYSE:RIG).
By Andrew Snyder
Baltimore – (TFN): This cannot be good for the oil industry. There is a very left-leaning Democrat packing his bags and heading to Washington. The high-profit, we’ve-got-them-bent-over-a-table oil industry must be pinching itself hoping this is nothing more than a bad dream.
Unfortunately, it is real. Democrats now control the White House, the Senate, the House, the courts, our schools, and a large chunk of our nation’s banks. All that is left for us pro-business voters to do is pray they do not infiltrate the rest of Wall Street.
Over the next few years, the nation’s thriving businesses will face a strong headwind. Higher taxes, less incentives, and employees that feel their over-paying job is their god-given right will make profits even harder to come by.
No industry is more worried about an Obama administration than the oil industry. The nation’s new “supreme leader” has already promised to impose heavy windfall taxes on the nation’s energy producers. Companies like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and BP (NYSE:BP) are huge political targets. You can bet Obama has his eye on their record-smashing profits.
Dig deep for profits
But what about companies like Transocean (NYSE:RIG) that are working to tap the world’s offshore oil resources? We already know the chances of increased drilling off the American coast went out the window last night. But what about the rest of the world?
A glimpse into Transocean’s earnings report released earlier today will give us some clues. The company earned $1.1 billion last quarter, up from $973 million this time last year. It was an increase of 13%. Per share earnings were lower, $3.49 from $4.63, but that was caused by the dilution created when the company purchased GlobalSantaFe. On a top-line basis, Transocean recorded $3.19 billion in revenues, up 2.9% over the year.
Overall, investors have to be happy with these figures. While the actual earnings per share figure was five cents lower than expectations, revenues exceeded prior estimates. The company’s large acquisition made accurate estimates difficult at best.
Looking forward, it would be easy to say Transocean’s best days are behind it. With a new left-leaning administration that is not fond of offshore drilling, Transocean’s business growth will slow. Or so we think.
There are flaws in that logic.
To find the truth, we have to look much deeper. First, oil production across the globe is getting tougher. The easy reserves have long been tapped. Now, it takes more research, more technology, and much more money to find oil, especially on land. That is good news for Transocean, as it has the capability to produce oil where others cannot, deep beneath the ocean’s surface.
Offshore drilling may not be on the agenda in the United States, but it is quickly gaining momentum in places like the North Sea and South America. Oil addiction is far from a solely American dilemma.
Looking at today’s share price, Transocean is a real bargain for long-term investors. If you are willing to buy shares today and hold them for ten years or more (long enough to take advantage of the next oil cycle), you have a great shot at success.
If you are a short-term trader, I would hold off. There are better investments that will pay sizeable, low-risk profits over the next few months.
We have a new administration on its way to Washington. It means we need to adjust our investment strategies a bit, but it certainly does not mean our days of making big profits are over.
Sometimes, change can be good.
Next Article: Patience is a virtue
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December 22nd, 2008 at 11:23 pm
I agree..
But I think, you shouldn't just look at one side of the story..
There's always the bright side..And besides, profit isn't
the proof that you're gaining,but to serve people is..