TFN Readers Forecast: Black Swan and White Swan Events for 2009
Today's Financial News - Posted November 26, 2008
We invite our readers to make their own predictions of what core events will rock the financial markets in 2009… both in a positive way and in a negative way. (Please use the comments to enter into the fray!)
by J. Christoph Ambergers
Baltimore — (TFN): TFN eNews reader Robert O. wrote in: “Enjoyed reading your TFN article today, as usual. Nearly all others in the media would agree with most or all of what you wrote yesterday. Add me to that list.
“I’m just thinking out loud here, but what if we get a ‘black swan’ event that comes out of no-where and changes the direction things are going? Often, black swan events are something bad, something that sends the world into a tail spin (9/11 for example).
“Considering that almost everybody is thinking things are going to get worse, is it possible a black swan event could cause things to turn around and head in a totally unexpected but BETTER direction?
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“If so, what could that unexpected event be? I would really enjoy reading your thoughts about this, but only if you think this is worth thinking about.”
I have to admit that my outlook for 2009 would be quite bleak even if I trusted the new U.S. administration — or the concept of government intervention in the markets.
Next Article: The bi-polar dollar delusion… why the world depends on you
Posted by J. Christoph Amberger · Filed Under Investment Strategies, News that Matters
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6 Responses to “TFN Readers Forecast: Black Swan and White Swan Events for 2009”
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November 26th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Eventual galloping inflation with gold–when it rises–to unpreceded new heights. The money which will continue to be pumped into the system will make sure this happens.
November 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
All it will take to destroy the REST of the economy that's left is an attack on the oil fields or major shipping site for oil in the Mideast. That would skyrocket oil prices back to the 200 dollar level. The US and European economies could not withstand that at this juncture. Talk about defaulting loans!! If all you can do is (maybe) feed your family or have no job at all, just what do you think the consumer will pay with no money?
November 26th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Loved your “suggested” all Americans get $100,000 on the condition they pay off all debt before spending. Sounds good on the surface and I'm sure many people would have their hands out so fast, Washington couldn't print the money fast enough! But, once the debt is all paid off, it is a well documented fact that most people will get right back into debt. The reason, however, is never really addressed. The mindset of “just getting by” is so ingrained in the psyche of Americans, they will unconsciously fall back into their comfort zone of mediocrity. What needs to happen, not only on our continent, but globally, is to educate adults financially. How do you do that….start with the children! Kids today have no idea what it means to work for something, to wait until you can pay cash, or even to dream what it will be like once they get it. Too many parents for too long have whipped out those credit cards and satisfied little Johnny and Jenny's every wish.
For 2009, we are going to see more people reevaluate their lives and their values. If Washington will get out of the way of the American people, we CAN rise to the task of reestablishing ourselves and our dignity both financially and morally. As a baby boomer who has lost everything and is attempting to rebuild in my 50's, I'm not looking for handouts nor do I appreciate the banks and other institutions standing in line with their hands out whining because they made some stupid mistakes and wants someone else to pay for them, i.e. the taxpayer! There will be a grassroots revolt if the government continues to allow companies to get away with no accountability for their decisions. The average American is being held accountable for their actions: people are losing homes they over-leveraged, cars they couldn't afford and retirement funds they thought were relatively safe. If Americans have any guts they will insist Corporate America is held accountable too.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Possible black swan event for 2009 is a major devaluation of the US Dollar created by the US government to enable US debtors (and the US government) to pay off old debts with new cheaper dollars. It would be like getting 40% to 70% taken off credit card debts, mortgages, car loans, student loans, and the national debt at the same time.
That would feel great until the reality of the higher cost of living kicks in. But with some careful planning and smoke and mirrors accounting, that might not be noticeable to the average person till after the next presidential election. Wink wink, nudge nudge.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:55 am
At the rate Osama OOPS! I mean Obama is going, he will have to authorize the Treasury to print about 2 trillion USD. That's $2,000,000,000,000. The printing has been authorized on 11-24-08. The amount is yet to be determined or untill they run out of the special cotton based paper they have in stock. Taxes can't be raised because the taxpayers lost most of their money in the planned financial meltdown which caused the downward spiral of all stocks by 50-95%. So, saying that, the government will have to create another fantastic tragedy like 911, but worse-much worse to unite all US citizens against a common foe and to forget about our personal problems.
I see Iran in that trajectory. Obama will have to go against his own kind in order to save the New Babylon (USA). If there will not be any spectacular tragedy in the US or Israel so that we may attack a country in the near to far east, then we will have a revolution here. This will occur because people will lose another 50% of their money in the market. The unemployment will be above 10%-that's those actually collecting unemployment. Then there are those who still can't find a job after 9 months of unemployment or if they do find work it's at $10/hr when they were earning $30/hr or more. But they ARE working, No doubt these people will lose their homes, their cars, their families and maybe even some will lose their lives! Interest rates will rise to that of the Carter era. The US Dollar will be next to worthless. AND our personal debt will double or triple. What do you think the average American will do then? Think about it! Seriously!!
This may seem left-wing extremist to some-but this IS reality. Just look around. Don't take things said to you at face value. Delve into the speeches and promises being said.
Where is all the money going to come from for ALL the bailouts-including Obama's 1 Trillion Dollar stimulus package he and his financial (OJ) dream team is preparing?! Obama is the ne who never was before ' charismatic man who presides over New Babylon. He will also preside over temporary peace in the east: Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, UAE, Turkey and the rest. Then after a short while he (Osama, I meant, Obama) will show his true colors.
November 29th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Hi,
You are an optimist! It seems we have a number of concurrent trends converging. Economic turmoil, religious conflicts escalating, political struggle to maintain power and a generational conflict of the old and young. I believe 2009/10 will increase these tensions and conflicts with a resulting social upheaval. During the year the “big lie” will be recognized, i.e. you cannot get something for nothing and you are not entitled to anything on this planet – it does not work this way. Consequently our core “values” will be changed.