TFN Special Report: The Top Swine Flu Vaccine Stocks under $20
Today's Financial News - Posted August 20, 2009
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS), Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE:SNY), Carlisle Companies, Inc. (NYSE:CSL), AstraZeneca plc (NYSE:AZN) and GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE:GSK) have cornered the U.S. swine flu H1N1 vaccine market. So where should investors look for profits?
by J. Christoph Amberger
Baltimore, MD — TFN: The global 2009 flu pandemic is caused by a new strain of a influenza A virus subtype H1N1, officially named the “new H1N1″ strain.
It was first identified in April 2009. The disease is now commonly called “Swine flu” and has been blamed for a few thousands deaths… and the retaliatory slaughter of many more pigs.
Despite its name, transmission of the new strain occurs predominantly human-to-human.
Based on recent reports, there have been 255,209 confirmed cases of the disease worldwide. There have been around 2,400 confirmed or suspected deaths blamed on H1N1.
Compared to the grim arithmetic of the common household flu, the global body count is small: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that 36,000 people die of the flu in the United States every year. Between 2005 and 2007, Florida alone averaged 2,477 deaths per year from the flu and pneumonia.
Let’s face it: More important than death statistics, however, are the prospects for political and professional survival of those charged with being prepared to combat the disease. A deadly epidemic hitting a U.S. city or European region would have the same effect as Hurricane Katrina… not on the infrastructure but on the careers of those in charge.
No “bang-up job, Brownie” this time!
With careers at stake, no cost is being spared to prepare for the epidemic:
In Germany, Health Minister Ulla Schmidt (who likes to take her government car and driver on vacation to Spain) has ordered up 50 million doses of H1N1 vaccine to inoculate two thirds of 80 million Germans. The program will cost the government and private insurers between $852 million and $1.4 billion.
The United States government is equally ambitious. It’s ordered 195 million doses. 45 million are now expected to be delivered by mid-October.
H1N1vaccine is already coming off the production lines of the five different vaccine makers supplying the U.S.: WebMD says that
46% will come from Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) — currently trading at $45.21;
26% will come from Sanofi Pasteur, the U.S. branch of French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE:SNY), currently trading at $32.55;
19% will come from Carlisle Companies, Inc. (NYSE:CSL), currently at $32.72;
6% will come from MedImmune, now a subsidiary of AstraZeneca plc (NYSE:AZN), currently priced at $46.12 a share; and
3% will come from GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE:GSK), currently at $39.01.
(In other words, other than the share handled by the mishmash conglomerate CGL, all money spent on the U.S. vaccine supply will benefit foreign-owned companies!)
For investors, it seems hard to make a dime on swine flu vaccine — given that the revenues generated for these companies will nary leave a splash in their respective quarterly reports.
Which is why we look beyond the pharma establishment!
For swine flu to put money into the pockets of small investors, the stocks we select for our TFN readers have to meet several criteria:
* They have to trade at under $20.
* They have to have a proven track record of gains for investors.
* And they have to have a fighting chance at gaining up to around 30% over the next 6-12 months.
Here’s three of our current top 6 favorites:
* Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA), a leading Chinese vaccine maker, just announced positive top-line results from the completed clinical trial for its internally-developed H1N1 vaccine. It currently trades at $4.80.
* San Diego’s Vical Incorporated (NASDAQ:VICL) is producing a prototype vaccine for the H1N1 influenza. The company has entered into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the U.S. Naval Medical Research Center, a biomedical research organization within the U.S. Navy. This deal could be huge! Their stock is currently trading at $3.41.
* In a global world, I’d be amiss not to recommend our long-term friend Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited (NYSE:RDY), the India-based raja of generic pharmaceuticals. H1N1 may be just a drop in the bucket for the company… considering it’ll take a while for it to have its own bargain-brand variety on the market. The company currently trades for $16.26.
TFN Rapid Action Alert:
| Buy Sinovac (AMEX:SVA) under $5 in expectation of 25-30% gains by December 2009. |
| Buy Vical Incorporated (NASDAQ:VICL) under $3.75 for 20-35% gains by December 2009. |
| Buy Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited (NYSE:RDY) under $16.50 for possible gains of 10-15% throughout 2010. |
These are three perfectly good picks. But I have to be quite honest:
We’ve saved our best three bets for members of our premium service Hot Stock Confidential.
There’s a very good reason for that, too.
You see, the stocks we’ve selected for our members are much cheaper… and they trade at smaller volumes. They’re a bit more volatile, too.
But you know what that means: Instead of an upside of 20-30%, these stocks could easily soar 40-50% in a day… or more… on any bit of positive news!
For an example, look no further than August 19, when HSC members saw their position in Cerus Corporation (NASDAQ:CERS) soared on Swiss approval of one of their products. Just look at the action:
This is the kind of action we
The stock closed up 60.89% in a single day! We recorded gains of 53.7% on CERS for our HSC tracking portfolio, in just 15 trading days. But listen to what our members said:
*** “I sold 800 shares of cers today for a 72% profit, $1,038.00. The remaining 800 shares are at 63%and climbing. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.” — HSC Member Tony D., 08/19/2009 (e-mail on file)
*** “Thanks for the CERS heads up. I just made 26k today off of CERS thanks to you.” — HSC Member Shannon Z. on 8/19/2009 (e-mail on file)
*** “I made 72% on Cerus in 19 days. I love it. I will take that any day of the week. Thank you!” — HSC Member Grant R. on 8/19/2009 (e-mail on file)
That’s real money, my friend! In some cases enough to pay your monthly credit card bill (like HSC Member Sandra M. did on a 20% gain she made on one of our Chinese “proxy stocks). Or your mortgage for a year.
Of course, there’s a bit more risk involved… and a little more commitment on our side: We’re ready to blast out a sell alert at any time of the trading day, so you can lock in the maximum gain on any given HSC pick.
So far this year, we’ve taken double-digit profits on an amazing 45 recommendations!
We’ve made it easy as pie for you to become a Hot Stock Confidential member. So for our Top 3 Swine Flu Vaccine Picks, simply follow this link: You’ll have your hands on our recommendations within minutes!
Next Article: International Small Caps: Size doesn’t matter
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August 21st, 2009 at 5:05 pm
ADMP.ob has a vaccine that is applicable to the swine and avian flu viruses. Plus, they have a revenue generating specialty generic business.