Retail Bottom Fishing: Will Auto Nation (NYSE:AH) or Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH) survive?
Today's Financial News - Posted November 14, 2008
Retailers have a lot of issues to deal with. Car dealers are facing problems like the industry has never seen before. Companies like Auto Nation (NYSE:AH) and Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH) may not survive, but they can teach us a great lesson.
Andrew Snyder, TodaysFinancialNews.com
Baltimore – (TFN): If you are a retailer, you are at the mercy of your suppliers. A bad decision by some CEO or marketing manager that you have never met will greatly affect your future profitability. The way a retailer defends his supply-chain inferiority will directly translate into his success.
Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) is particularly good at managing its suppliers. In fact, the mega-retailer is so good at it, it does not have to manage its supply chain. It dictates it.
Sam Walton created this power through large-volume ordering, constantly demanding the lowest prices possible and diversifying his product line. If one supplier acts up, Wal-Mart simply replaces them. And because the company sells just about every product man has ever created, Wal-Mart can afford to weather out downturns in a few of its product lines.
In other words, if one of its suppliers goes bankrupt or consumers suddenly refuse to buy a certain brand’s products, Wal-Mart’s profitability does not disappear. The company has a well-diversified product line.
If Wal-Mart and its thousands of products are the best example, car dealerships have to be the absolute worst.
One product, one shot at success
Think about it. Most dealerships sell one, maybe two brands of cars. You go to one dealer for Fords (NYSE:F), one dealer for General Motors (NYSE:GM) and another for Toyota (NYSE:T). Buyers have lots of options and industry competition is huge, but individual dealers are at the utter mercy of countless variables outside their control.
Right now, the downturn in consumer spending, the lack of credit and the notion of bankruptcy in Detroit is driving potential buyers out of showrooms. Most dealerships are in dire financial situations.
Mike Jackson, the CEO of the country’s largest dealership, Auto Nation (NYSE:AN), says at least a thousand dealers will lock their doors this year and just as many, if not more, will follow next year. The only dealers that will escape unscathed are those that were smart enough to diversify their product offerings.
For example, Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH), one of the nation’s top dealerships according to sales, sells over 30 different brands in fifteen states. It also owns and operates 34 body shops. If the company is going to make it through this recession, its product diversity will be the only thing that gets it there.
Unfortunately, like so many of its competitors, Sonic has a horrid balance sheet. As of last quarter, it was sitting on well over one billion dollars worth of inventory. With just $7 million in cash, it will be interesting to see how it pays for that inventory.
If the company can find the capital to get itself through this downturn, it will be able to survive. But right now, few investors are willing to take any risks in the auto industry.
When we boil it all down, Sonic Automotive, Auto Nation, and the nation’s 21,000 other dealerships are at the mercy of Detroit, which is in the hands of Washington (here is what I think of that). A lot of things have to go right before investors should think about going long on the industry.
If you are an investor looking to take advantage of the market’s downturn and snag shares of the nation’s retailers at rock-bottom prices (which is a good strategy), be sure to choose the companies with diversified offerings that are not at the mercy of their suppliers.
Wal-Mart and its index-smashing performance is a great example of the opportunities that lie ahead.
Next Article: General Motors (NYSE:GM): Let the fat lady sing
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November 17th, 2008 at 5:53 am
Sam Walton created this power through large-volume ordering, constantly demanding the lowest prices possible and diversifying his product line
November 22nd, 2008 at 1:49 pm
In other words, if one of its suppliers goes bankrupt or consumers suddenly refuse to buy a certain brand’s products, Wal-Mart’s profitability does not disappear