Stagflation Will Kill the Carry Trader
Posted June 12, 2008
“Throw stagflation into the mix, and the whole picture changes. This is exactly what’s happening now. The rules are changing but no one seems to have informed ‘the players’ yet.” — Sean Hyman
by Sean Hyman
Baltimore – (TFN): For a long time now, if you had a background in stock trading, you could predict where carry trades were heading next. That was especially the case for the really popular carry trades like EUR/JPY (euro to the yen) and GBP/JPY (British pound to the yen).
These forex trades mimicked the Dow and the Nikkei. So if it was an “up” day for stocks, generally it was also an “up” day for carry trades. And the same was true when stocks dropped - these carry trades also took a nosedive.
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However, that only works when everything is “normal” in world economies. Throw stagflation into the mix, and the whole picture changes. This is exactly what’s happening now. The rules are changing but no one seems to have informed “the players” yet.
Many traders are still shorting carry trades on poor stock market days. And these unfortunate traders are about to lose everything - and they won’t know why. Read on to learn more.
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