Gas wars re-ignite in Ukraine!
Today's Financial News - Posted March 4, 2009
A new twist to the Russian-Ukraininan energy war pushes up Hot Stock Confidential picks BMB Munai Inc. (AMEX:KAZ), Toreador Resources Corporation (NASDAQ:TRGL), and Total (NYSE:TOT)!
by J. Christoph Amberger
Baltimore—TFN: Back in November 2008, I went on record predicting an energy stand-off between Russia and Ukraine that would pitch Europe into a deep freeze. (Here’s what I said.) It came to pass on New Year’s Eve, when Russia shut down gas deliveries to Ukraine.
On the surface, this conflict was about natural gas. Russia, through its capitalist arm Gazprom, wants to become the energy monopoly of the EU. Ukraine is in the way: While George Bush was president, the country sought to join NATO and the EU—breaking for good with Soviet-era Russian hegemony. And while the Nordstrom pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea is still in the planning stages, most of the gas destined for delivery in Europe has to pass through Ukrainian pipelines.
And Ukraine may just refuse to play ball.
Of course, my worst-case scenario went a little bit further than what we got to witness. Based on similar strategic patterns exhibited by the Russians in Georgia, I anticipated an armed incursion of Gazprom security forces (backed by Russia) to protect their “business interests” in Ukraine.
That did not come to pass—yet!
Because Russia has shifted into a placeholder war pattern within Ukraine—attempting an escalation of the political war between Western-minded President Viktor Yushchenko and the ambitious pro-Russian populist Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
Today, we had an armed incursion of sorts:
“Masked and heavily-armed secret service agents raided the Kiev headquarters of Ukraine’s state-owned natural gas company Naftohaz,” according to news services. Their assessment:
“The fresh turmoil could threaten domestic supplies of Russian gas—pumped through Naftohaz’s pipeline system—and possibly even reignite the harrowing midwinter gas shutdown that left 18 European countries literally out in the cold in January.”
“It’s not between Ukraine and Russia this time, but a consequence of the internal struggles in Ukraine,” says Oleksandr Sushko, an analyst with the independent Institute for Euro-Atlantic Integration in Kiev. “But it can have serious consequences, and could badly disrupt the flow of gas.”
One of our recommended stocks, BMB Munai Inc. (AMEX:KAZ) went up over 31% today. Toreador Resources Corporation (NASDAQ:TRGL) was up 24%. And Total (NYSE:TOT), the main long-term beneficiary, ended the day up a respectable 8%.
Of course, timing is everything, and our initial positions had taken a beating in the collapse of energy prices and foreign equity markets.
But today’s moves validate our initial assessment of these stocks upward potential.
The Eastern European energy crisis is far from over… and I believe we will be served well holding on to these stocks for the long term!
Next Article: Don’t cry for GM, it’s already dead
Be the first to leave a reply.
Your comments are welcome
Follow TFN via RSS or Twitter |
 |
 |
 |
Advertisement
Latest Headlines
- The Big Picture for Sinobiopharma, Inc. (SNBP)
- Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) and Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) up despite horrid housing news
- The FDA catalyst: 2010 moves in MannKind (MNKD), Roche Holding (RHHBY), Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) show it still works!
- Steepest drop since Feb. 2009: Here we go again!
- Is the silver run over? Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Alto Group (ALTO), Hecla Mining (HL), Endeavour Silver (EXK) close down