“Surprise” commodities downturn? Hardly. TFN told you so — in May!

Posted August 12, 2008

Were you surprised by the commodities downturn? You shouldn’t have been. We told you it would happen three months ago.

by J. Christoph Amberger

Baltimore — (TFN): Call me shallow. Egocentric. Auto-appreciative. Desperate for attention?

Heck, call me Ishmael, for all I care. But may I point out that the “surprise” downturn in oil, gold, euro and other speculative assets really shouldn’t have come as a surprise to TFN viewers?

Because I predicted that this would happen on May 20… giving you two months time to get yourself positioned. On my May 20 60-Second Buzz, “Technical Indicators: Is a dollar reversal imminent?“, I opined:

“The trend reversal in the currencies market will most certainly translate into a backlash against the hoarders of commodities and energy-related assets. Confirmation of the trend, accompanied by a strengthening of U.S. stocks, will put additional external pressure on the bubble levels in the commodity markets.This backlash could be short-lived. It could also carry on for months.

“I peg the downside risk for gold at $820-810 per ounce over the next two weeks. And although it seems unlikely at $123 a barrel, oil may retreat toward the high $90s per barrel. Remember, these commodities are part of an interdependent speculative matrix of currencies, commodities, and equities. If you count on gold to be your financial life saver, remember that its qualities as a floatation device are similar to those of lead.”

Sure, my timing was off. And my downside for gold was too conservative. But overall, I hope you agree that your free subscription to TodaysFinancialNews.com so far has been worth every penny!

And scrap “Ishmael”. I think I like Nostradamus better….

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