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The Week in Review: Commodity crash, recession postponed, the best trading service, and a free contrarian bank stock pick

Posted January 26, 2008

by J. Christoph Amberger 

Baltimore — (TFN): "What do you make of the markets today," was the first question I heard when I checked in with the office, after just having landed in Philadelphia last Monday.

"What markets," was my response. After all, thirty-thousand feet above the Atlantic Ocean, few things can bother you — aside from the omnipresent elbow of the guy to your left, or maybe the ponytailed idiot in front of you who has rammed the back of his seat into your knees and appears to be dreaming of pogo sticks and moon bounces. (Its nothing a few hundred bucks in upgrades wouldn't fix — and nothing a thrifty Prussian won't put up with who considers air travel not a "flying experience" but a utilitarian exercise in getting from point A to point B as expediently as possible.)

As this Monday's global market crash unfolded, I was returning from my 25-year high school reunion in Berlin. The rest  of the week, I was sidelined as cataract surgery to my right eye limited my ability to read. Doctor's orders, what can I say. I follow them to the letter. So when I went through the TodaysFinancialNews.com web site this weekend, there was plenty of coverage that I myself had missed.

The Week in Review: Commodity crash, recession postponed, the best trading service, and a free contrarian bank stock pickSquinting and wincing, and on second thought ignoring my doctor's "suggestion" to stay away from my laptop for a week, I took the liberty of compiling what I consider the most compelling stories of the week, just in case you missed them:

 *** Commodity Crash: How US recession will affect the commodities supercycle: Smart Trading Action Alert's research director Laura Cadden just posted the transcript of her recent interview with Mike Burnick, editor of Global Market Investor.

Mike proves to be a true contrarian as he states: "Probably over the next few months we’ll see some downside volatility in oil and in gold because of the concerns about global growth. Energy more so than gold because the dynamic behind gold has more to do with the declining U.S. dollar and worries about inflation." Read up on the interview or watch the financial video. 

 *** When reading the various financial e-letters spilling into my mailbox, I notice how often their editors are relying on the phrase "everybody knows", especially when it comes to the troubles of the US dollar and the resulting problems of the US economy. I don't know about you, but I don't like to read about what "everybody knows" half as much as I like reading about what experienced eyes see beneath the turmoil. Like the perspective of our own Andrew Snyder, former editor of Volume Spike Alert (when that service's readers were still generated substantial gains). Andrew says: "Recession: Not gonna happen" — adding, "A lot of the negativity spewed by the mainstream media is proving to be overdone or just plain untrue."

 *** "Dr Doom" Peter Schiff, of course, sees it from quite a different point of view. He believes that "The U.S. has lost its financial dominance". He assures us that "Just as Detroit lost its reputation for high quality cars, bankrupted dotcoms and worthless subprime debt are creating similar problems for Wall Street. You can’t expect to keep your customers if you continually sell them shoddy merchandise."

  *** Hot Stock Pick of the Week: When banks started to collapse earlier this year, I thought it was time to start looking into banking stocks that had been hit hard for all the wrong reasons. TFN's research director Stephanie Grimmett spent a few weeks crunching the numbers and finally came up with this TFN Special Report Bank Stocks: Buy this rock-solid contrarian banking play now. Due to Ms. Grimmett's innate modesty, I ended up doing our video alert for it. (How come those screenshots always turn out looking so geeky??)

And if you missed last week's Hot Stock Pick, here's your chance to catch up.

 *** Back in December, we decided to put investment newsletters and trading services "Under the Microscope" on a larger scale than before. Since then, Steve McDonald and his team have been examining the track record spreadsheets of literally dozens of services to come up with an accurate accounting of those who actually end up making money for their subscribers. This week's review is called "Global Investing with The Wealth Advantage" and examines Andy Gordon's Wealth Advantage service.

Here's what Steve has to say: "Since 2006 he has earned an average of 44% per trade. In 2007, he made 67% in the first quarter, 88% in the second quarter, 77% in the third quarter and 24% in the fourth quarter. That's while the DOW was getting crushed and returned a little over 6% for the entire year. Andy Gordon made an average of 64% for '07." Read up on it or simply watch the financial video.

 *** For me (and hopefully for you, too), the central benefit of TFN's "TFNsurgency" from the Taipan Group lies in our new ability to build strategic alliances with  all kinds of competent publishing groups and editors… whose inclusion into our smorgasboard of financial content would have been precluded by penny-wise considerations of process managers. Those would have applied to Solar Investing: Three stocks to buy by Green Chip Stocks' managing editor Jeff Siegel (who began his career back in the late 1990s working for me). Take a look at it and tell me what you think!

So what is ahead for the next couple of weeks? Well, let's start with today's Smart Investing: The inimitable Krista Das interviews The Money Map's posh-spoken editor Martin Hutchinson who tells you exactly what to make of Tata Motors' recent unveiling of the cheapest car in the world. We also have lined up exclusive insights into the South American markets thanks to Juan Munoz, international market perspectives by Oxford Club's Martin Denholm. And I have been working over my mentor and long-term associate Michael Masterson to come on our show for a special video report on how to position yourself and your business in view of a possible recession.

But more on that as it unfolds. 

****Make sure you sign up for our FREE TFN News Feed for breaking news, special reports and new financial videos. Click here to pick your favorite reader. If you prefer to have the feed delivered to your email, just click here. 


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