URGENT ALERT » The markets are crashing…
Top Financial Expert Warns:"Oil at $50… Gold at $500: This Crisis will affect ALL asset classes!"Here's how to protect your portfolio…
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In September, it began selling gold. Tons of it.
Between July and late September, GLD liquidated 68.7 tons of gold. On one day alone, it sold off 10 tons of bullion. According to the Reserve Asset Statistics of the World Gold Council, that corresponds to the combined reserves of Canada, Mexico and Bahrain.
GLD had purchased 79 tons of gold between December 2007 and July 2008. That corresponds to the total gold reserves of Australia or Kuwait.
In the last two months, the fund has liquidated 74.7 tons of gold… the equivalent of Egypt's total reserves.
Of course, you'd expect a gold fund to engage in large-scale buying and selling of bullion. But you'd also expect trading volumes representing the total gold reserves of industrialized nations to have an effect on the gold price.
But something curious happened in mid-October. You see, when global equity markets crashed the second week of October… with the Dow shedding an incredible 18% of its valuation in a single week… GLD reported adding another 30.69 tons of gold…
That's a new record of 770.64 tons of gold bars, held by a custodian in London for the trust.
Between September 16 and October 13, GLD added 156.29 tons of gold metal to its holdings. That's more than the total reserves of Sweden (146.6 tons), Saudi Arabia (143 tons) or the Bank for International Settlements (134.9 tons).
Yet despite of this soaking up of “tight supplies”… despite the U.S. Mint halting production of some American Eagle coins due to supply shortages… despite gold coins trading at the highest premium to spot prices on record…. GOLD PRICES FELL OVER 15% IN A SINGLE DAY!
The introduction of exchange-traded funds linked to gold was a major new catalyst for gold demand. In fact, it was mainly demand from fund investors that was driving the gold price up. The fund first listed on the NYSE in 2004… at the very beginning of gold's most recent meteoric rise.
Are you seeing a pattern emerge?
Let's look at the inventory: Gold is now trading up to $50 below its early January price level of between $850-930 per ounce. Which means the year-to-date excess inventory is held at a loss…
When major gold purchasers turn into major sellers of physical gold – like GLD did in September – it causes a severe disturbance in the supply-demand ratio that supported the bull run of the past four years.
Why else do you think gold plummeted on Friday, October 10… to below $900… as markets crashed worldwide?

My team and I have compiled a Special Report, The Ultimate Gold Hedge Options Play. In it, we tell you exactly what you must do now to safeguard what you have… and insure against commodities volatility.
You'll be able to profit from gold's powerful forward momentum… AND from its even stronger eventual slide.
But let's back up for a second…
On July 15, I warned our readers that oil prices were headed for a severe correction. People laughed and shook their heads. And why not: After all, oil posted its all-time high of $147 that week.
We recommended our readers buy shares in select U.S. refinery stocks: These companies had been crushed as crude oil prices ate up their profit margins – and would certainly profit from a reversal of the trend.
Readers who took our advice saw shares in the refiners we recommended soar by up to 80% within just a few weeks… as oil prices began to plunge.
Our analysis now indicates a similar scenario for gold. That's why I asked my editors to develop a strategy to safely profit from this INEVITABLE catastrophe.
This strategy is beautiful in its simplicity… and is designed to lock in up to 200% to 300% gains as safe havens are hit by the perfect storm…
If the hedge funds, pension funds, ETFs I mentioned above are forced to free up cash to pay out investors withdrawing capital… they'll start selling their holdings.
Over the past years, gold has been in a strong rising pattern. But there's an increasing chance that gold is heading toward a dramatic fall. Many gold experts agree a drop to $500 per ounce could be in the cards:
You see, gold and oil prices generally move together.
Historically, the price of oil has averaged about 15 barrels per ounce. But with recent soaring oil prices, the relationship strayed far from this average. Recently, the oil-to-gold ratio fell to an all-time low of 7.5:1.
Let's apply just the two ratios: At 15:1, a price of $70 per barrel of oil gives us a price of $1,050 per ounce. At 7.5:1, we'd have half of that... a mere $525 per ounce.
If recent trends hold up, gold may be in a hurry to lose another 25%... just to catch up with oil's current levels around $70!
But the outlook for oil is not at all bullish: Supply is expanding... Demand is stagnating: Worst of all, the speculative buying frenzy that exploded oil prices into the $140s has stopped... and is now turning into selling pressure!
Oil has lost over 50% – or $70 dollars per barrel – in just four months. Could it lose another $20? In my opinion, it could happen just as easily as Lehman Brothers going out of business.
Let's do the math: Oil at $50, applying the 7.5:1 ratio, leaves us with $375 per ounce of gold. A bit more than last half of Friday's post-plunge value...
Here's what this means to you...
Savvy options investors have been getting rich from fluctuations in the markets for years. They profit when prices go up and they really profit when prices sudden reverse and head south.
Opportunities to use options to profit in the gold industry are rare. But when one comes about, you had better take advantage of it.
This is the best profit opportunity I have ever seen in the gold market.
Buy-low, sell-high investors are going to get rich.
Gold will likely decline as fast or faster than it had been advancing earlier in the year. It'll create an incredible opportunity to options investors.
This rare investing phenomenon is why my team and I created the Ultimate Gold Hedge. By taking the simple, smart steps that I will outline in our latest, confidential Special Report, The Ultimate Gold Hedge Options Play, you'll be able to profit from gold's remaining, powerful forward momentum… AND from its even stronger, inevitable slide.
Experts agree that gold prices still have the potential to set new all-time highs in the next few months. Prices from $1,200 to $1,500, and even $2,000 an ounce, are being tossed around. (While I believe there's a good chance gold could reach $1,000 in the next few months, it would take a catastrophic economic failure to get it $2,000.)
According to the options market, gold's peak will be just over $1,000.
Our favorite measure of the gold market is the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund I told you about. It's the purest way of playing the gold market without actually hoarding huge piles of gold in your basement.
I've spent the last few days of this market meltdown studying, discounting, and valuing the fund's options. There's no doubt that they're HUGELY overvalued. The investing opportunities are endless, but two options in particular have me salivating.
Right now, there's one option in particular for just $9.50. At this price, the market is anticipating gold will peak at less than $1,000 before spring 2009.
If gold trades for $1,200 between now and this option's expiration date, you could make more than 20% on these options.
Analysts are certain we could see $1,500 in the next few months. At that price, these options could nearly double in value.
And if gold reaches the ultimate peak of $2,000, you could be sitting on huge gains of at least 200%.
What about the downside?
Now remember, I said our trading experts had created the Ultimate Gold Hedge. That means you'll be protected if gold suddenly slips in value. As it did on Friday, Oct. 10 when gold fell almost $100 as markets crashed! Or last Friday, when it dropped down to $780!
To protect from a backwards slide, we have to look at put options. And since experts agree that a dramatic slide in gold could take place over several months, I looked for options with a long-term expiration date.
This other set of options is a steal at their current price of $11.90. If gold prices drop to our target of $500 per ounce by 2010, these options should be worth at least 210% more than they're selling for today. Even if gold does not drop so drastically – say it hits $650 – you could still pull in profits of 100% or more.
No matter what, you have a fantastic opportunity to profit from gold's potential fall. By taking a few simple, smart steps we outline in our latest confidential Special Report, The Ultimate Gold Hedge Options Play, you may be able to profit from gold's residual forward momentum… AND from its even stronger eventual slide.
At TFN, our approach is straightforward: Provide our readers with profitable investment and trading recommendations… no matter what the overall markets are doing…
While markets crashed in early October, our stock experts generated fast, safe, reliable gains of both on the U.S. and overseas markets. Just take a look…
Right now, there are literally dozens of companies we're keeping our eyes on. These are stocks we'd buy ourselves… and have no problem recommending to our relatives. Companies whose insiders are buying… that have easy-to-understand business concepts, established markets, growing revenues and unique products.
Some are making great progress in the fields of biotechnology… genetics… medical diagnostics. Long-term, they will make good investments. But in the meantime, every small breakthrough… every successful step in the approval process… holds the potential for amazing short-term profits.
In many instances the daily trading volume of these companies is so light, a single story in the mainstream media… an Internet rumor… a line dropped on a bulletin board… could double or triple their average daily trading activity and push stock prices out of our advisable buying range.
The instant an opportunity arises, we notify you by special dedicated newsfeed or email. This is the only way we issue our alerts.
To maximize your potential returns, it's essential that you're able to get into a recommendation within our advisable buying range – and get out as soon as we issue a sell alert.
We supplement our alerts with regular updates and strategic adjustments, as well as exclusive special video reports and podcasts that enable you to keep up on your Hot Stock Confidential picks via your email – to your cellphone, Blackberry, or any other digital information medium.
And if you join now, you could pay for your entire subscription cost in just days…
Become a Member of Hot Stock Confidential today for only $299 a year and you'll receive immediate access to a wealth of investment advice… including our latest Special Report, The Ultimate Gold Hedge Options Play.
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Executive Publisher, Hot Stock Confidential
October 2008
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